Are fertility rates really going down? Why?

Women are having fewer children. One of the big reasons is frequently misunderstood.

A few weeks ago I did a Skeptoid episode on the declining birth rate, and how this fact is being misused as a political tool to frighten Americans into adopting Christian Nationalist ideologies. Birth rates have indeed been dropping for quite some time, primarily due to improved education and access to family planning care resulting in fewer teen mothers.

However, quite a lot of the feedback I received said that I missed the point; the real problem here is that women’s fertility is actually dropping — as if their ability to have children is actually decreasing, like we’re living the plot of some science fiction story. If true, that should be the real story. And I agree; if that were true, it would indeed be the story of the century!

Here are the facts:

• Fertility rates continue to fall worldwide (as they have for decades).

• Women are just as physically able to have babies as ever before; there is no mysterious decline in this.

But how is this seeming contradiction possible? The answer is that some people misunderstand the definition of fertility rate.