As Russia and its various military escapades are always in the news, it’s nice to keep up with what their capabilities actually are. As one can imagine, they’re generally in a pretty bleak state, and their rampant systemic corruption is largely to blame. Budget dollars intended for spare fighter plane parts are more likely to be used to upgrade the hot tub on some oligarch’s superyacht (and that’s not hyperbole).
This is a topic on which I try to keep myself updated. The actual current numbers are best known to the CIA and are rarely easy to find, but keeping up with a handful of sources means you can have a pretty good handle on the situation. So I want to be clear that the numbers I give here are my own estimates that are in line with most published industry estimates to the best of my understanding, but I make no representation that they are correct.
Today I want to focus on Russia’s fleet of fighter aircraft. In the best of times, Russia hopes to maintain an 80% operational readiness rate: if they have 10 planes, 8 of them should be ready to rock. But in reality their rate is closer to 50%. As spare parts are often not available, cannibalization of otherwise ready planes is common throughout their forces. Losses in Ukraine have made this much worse. Not only have some 75+ fighter planes been lost, others have been damaged, and still others have flown enough hours that they’re now overdue for maintenance. I’m seeing optimistic estimates of 50% operational readiness, and pessimistic estimates of 30%. So for the numbers I report today, we’ll be (I think) generous and assume 40% operational readiness — an outrageous number for a modern military.
Su-57 Felon: This is their best fighter. It is is their only 5th generation fighter, comparable to the American F-22 and F-35, but with much less stealth capability. 11 airframes are known to have ever been built, they can probably field as many as 4. None have flown in Ukraine, so far as I can find.