I'm headed to Monte Carlo and I'm going to clean up. Here's how.
The next time you hear from me, I'm going to be extraordinarily wealthy from insane gambling winnings. And there's historical precedent.
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We’ve all had that friend who always manages to come out ahead on the slot machines or at the craps table. How does he do it? Well, the obvious answer that springs to mind is that he probably doesn’t. We probably think he’s suffering from a case of the confirmation bias: he remembers the times he wins and forgets the times he loses. But it’s possible to do a study and find out that there actually are people who do come out ahead more often — they actually do; it’s not just a case of convenient memory selections. By their example, going gambling might appear to be a reasonable way to make money. What logical fallacy is this?