Brian’s Bullshit-Free Zone

Brian’s Bullshit-Free Zone

Why the Doomsday Argument is wrong

Does a simple statistical analysis really show that humanity is near the end of its existence? It's not quite so simple.

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Brian Dunning
Jul 30, 2026
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If all we have is a sampling of serial numbers from WWII Panzer tanks, can we reliably estimate their total number? If so, then aliens. Read on to find out why. 🤔

“Fermi’s Paradox” is a major topic of the film we’re working on, Alien Echoes. The paradox wonders why — since the universe is so vast that it must be bursting at the seams with life — do we h…

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