Worried about war? Here's the latest head-to-head on air forces.

Russia? China? Don't worry too much.

I’m sitting here in my swanky new bachelor pad — or, more accurately, my very not swanky bachelor pad that I hope to make swanky over the next year or two. And the news I’m reading — likely the same as what you’re reading — doesn’t look great. People are worried that the proxy war between Ukraine and Russia will turn into a hot war between the US and Russia; and that the increasingly likely proxy war between Taiwan and China will turn into a hot war between the US and China.

Neither is implausible. Shit might easily get real. Do you need to worry?

If you are on the side of the Americans, I say no, you do not need to worry. As far as air superiority is concerned, you have nothing to fear from the Chinese (and in case it wasn’t obvious), certainly not from the Russians.

Attend, while I lay out the operational readiness of all three combat fleets.

Fighters

Fighter planes are loosely grouped by “generation.” Newer generations are more capable. 3rd generation planes were like those fielded in the Vietnam War, when we started to have decent radar and avionics, like the F-4 Phantom and MiG-21. Planes that old are no longer relevant — they’re museum pieces.

4th generation fighters

These planes, loosely having come from the 1970s-1990s, started to have things like fly-by-wire controls and “fire and forget” missiles. Even today, their large numbers mean they would still play a major role in any theater-wide conflict.

• United States: We have 726 F-16 fighters (1979), 113 F/A-18 fighters (1983), and 371 F-15 fighters (1976). With the exception of a few variants that are either a bit more or a bit less, we have 80% operational readiness. Total we could field today: 968

• China: Variants of their J-10 fighter (2007) total 608 units built. They have about 70% (max) operational readiness. They also have 365 J-16 fighters (2015) at a 75% operational readiness. Total they could field today: 700

• Russia: They have 101 Su-27 (1985), 110 Su-30 (1992), and 110 Su-35 (2014) fighters. Russia’s systemic corruption (30% of funds misdirected) and lack of spare parts (thank you, international sanctions) gives them a 40% operational readiness. Total they could field today: 128

Compare those final numbers. And now we have the newer stuff:

5th generation fighters

Loosely having come from the 2000s-present. These have low-observability stealth features; supercruise (sustained supersonic flight without afterburners); and networked warfare capabilities, taking sensor data not only from their own onboard systems but from a theater-wide network.

• United States: We have 185 F-22 fighters (40% operationally ready) and 409 F-35 fighters (50% operationally ready). Total we could field today: 279

• China: They have 300 J-20 fighters, but many of them are using unreliable Russian engines with no spare parts. Probably 50% operationally ready. Total they could field today: 150

• Russia: Their latest and greatest is the Su-57 Felon. 10 have been built, with a 30% operational readiness. In addition, each is only able to fly 2-3 missions per month, and it’s only stealthy from the front. Total they could field today: 3

6th generation fighters

These are generally not operational yet, but getting close in some cases. This is where we get into the real science fiction stuff. They have enhanced stealth and adaptive engines (changes the way it works based on Mach number); may include directed energy weapons like lasers; are optionally crewed; and each can work with up to 8 collaborative uncrewed drone aircraft with AI pilots capable of 9-g maneuvers.

• United States: We have 3 F-47 flying demonstrators. None are operationally ready; 185 are expected “between 2025-2029.” Total we could field today: 0

• Russia: They have “concepts of a plan” for the Mig-45 PAK DP. It is still in the planning stages and no design has been finalized. There is no indication that it would exceed Gen-5 capabilities. Total they could field today: 0

• China: They have at least 1 flying prototype of the J-50. But it is not very stealthy at all, and there is no indication it has most other Gen-6 features such as collaborative combat drones. Total they could field today: 0

Summary: Russia’s fighter fleet is no match for any modern air force. China’s fleet, on the other hand, has ⅔ the numbers of the US fleet but none has ever been battle tested (exception: Pakistani J-10s were reportedly successful against Indian Dassault Rafale fighters, a European Gen-4 plane). It’s a toss of the coin, but heavily weighted in the US’ favor.

Strategic Bombers

Strategic bombers progress more slowly compared to their fighter brethren, so there are fewer generations, and about 1 generation behind.

3rd generation bombers

This is the old-school, Vietnam era stuff again. These could do terrain-following; had nuclear + conventional capability; and could launch cruise missiles and perform electronic warfare:

• United States: We roll 76 of the sweet 60-year-old B-52s, with a 54% operational readiness; plus 45 B-1 supersonic bombers at a 47% readiness state. Total we could field today: 62

• China: They rely mainly on a license-built version of the 75-year-old Soviet Tu-16 bomber from 1952, called the Xi’an H-6. It is subsonic and has no meaningful defense systems; each of which would be trivially downed with the cheapest of US air-to-air missiles. China has 231 with a 70% readiness. Total they could field today: 162

• Russia: The Tu-95 Bear propeller bomber (1956) had 55 in the fleet, until Ukraine just destroyed an unknown number; estimated 25% readiness. The Tu-160 Blackjack, a superficial copy of the B-1, had 16 ever built. Estimated 50% readiness. Total they could field today: 22

4th generation bombers

Adds stealth and precision strike.

• United States: 19 B-2 bombers in inventory. At 40% readiness due to extreme complexity, total we could field today: 8

• China: They floated proposals for something they called the H-20, but nothing was ever produced. At least one flying prototype has been spotted of their J-36 stealth bomber; but with its obvious non-stealth limitations it is clearly not knocking on the door of Gen-5. Total they could field today: 0

• Russia: They have “concepts of a plan” for the Tupolev PAK DA. Its has been reportedly finalized, but no prototype has ever appeared. Total they could field today: 0

5th generation bombers

Adds next-gen survivability and autonomy. Crew killed? No problem — mission still accomplished. Hypersonic missile delivery. Enhanced stealth.

• United States: 3 flying prototypes of the B-21, but none projected (of an unknown planned number budgeted for) until they go into service in 2027. Total we could field today: ??

• China: None are known to have been planned. Total they could field today: 0

• Russia: None are known to have been planned. Total they could field today: 0

So, if you are an American, you have no worries about getting into a hot war with a foreign opponent. And you can also be assured about something that only a few other NATO countries can: that your bombs will not strike civilian targets. Ironic, isn’t it? —that today, war technology means not killing enemy civilians.

No reasonable person wants to be on the winning side in a one-sided war. Or, really, on either side of any war. But what I have to offer today, in this article, is at least a small reassurance that Americans have nothing to worry about from any foreign superpower.