Fact checking Springfield, Ohio's Haitian population

Is it 5,000? Is it 20,000? Racists demand to know

Some of the Haitian immigrants “terrorizing” Springfield, Ohio (Springfield News-Sun)

It goes without saying that half the US population’s belief that 20,000 Haitian immigrants have suddenly flooded Springfield, OH to eat the dogs and cats of its White American population has caused a giant shitstorm. And the other 50% of the population knows that it’s not just false, it’s both comically and tragically false. Snopes has debunked fake evidence of it twice so far (here and here), and racist fuckfaces have sent in bomb threats closing Springfield schools. Many of our Haitian-American friends are literally fearing for their lives, due to the open racism given fresh license by certain political figures.

Here are the US metropolitan areas with the largest Haitian populations according to Wikipedia, and the number of police reports of dogs and cats stolen and eaten:

Miami-Ft. Lauderdale, 336,000 Haitians: 0 reports
New York-New Jersey, 229,000 Haitians: 0 reports
Bostom-Cambridge, 74,000 Haitians: 0 reports
Orlando-Kissimee, 61,000 Haitians: 0 reports

Incredibly, it would seem that even in the cities with far more Haitians than Ohio, Haitians don’t steal and eat pets any more than does JD Vance’s own hillbilly family.

A literal former US President falsely asserted 20,000 Haitians have flooded Springfield and are eating people’s pets. His running mate JD Vance has doubled down on it repeatedly. And Donald Trump Jr., one of the former First Shitheads, has doubled down on it too — and added the claim that Haitians are of low intelligence, because why not. Their lackey Elon Musk used his social media juggernaut Xitter to amplify all of it.

And of course it is all completely false. It is hard not to conclude that US populists have the deliberate goal of exceeding 1930s German populists in making false and racist charges against non-WASPs in their country.

But let’s address the big question everyone’s bandying about — how many Haitians are in Springfield, Ohio? First I want to say that it doesn’t matter. They’re there legally (under their Temporary Protected Status due to the lack of meaningful government in Haiti), they are law abiding, they are contributing to the regrowth of Springfield’s packaging and machining sector following its collapse due to deindustrialization over the past few decades, and they’re our fellow human beings. But since racist fuckwads are trying to make a thing about it, let’s at least try to have our facts straight.

The fact is nobody really has a good count. There’s no official register (because this isn’t some crazy-ass Communist country), the Haitian immigrants are typically low on resources and often live in multi-family households, they tend to avoid using city services, and the language barrier has prevented many of their children from attending school. These factors combine to make their true numbers hard for anyone to know. A viral Xitter thread tried to argue the number is only about 5,000, but that’s probably low. The populists’ claim of 15,000-20,000 is probably high, but it’s likely in the ballpark. It comes from Bryan Heck, the city manager, who wrote a letter to Ohio’s senators back in July asking for help with housing, so obviously would have estimated generously. Springfield news estimated only 4,000-8,000 last year. Reuters says “as many as 15,000 immigrants from Haiti over roughly the last three years.” No one has any clue and everyone you ask gives a different estimate.

Springfield’s official population census peaked back in the 1970s at over 80,000, but as factory work declined, it’s currently at a 100-year low of 58,000. However many immigrants have come in recently has happened too quick to be counted yet in that 58,000 number, so we just don’t have a clue.

If I had to throw a dart to give my best estimate based on the varying sources I’ve seen just today, I’d guess 12,000 ± 5,000. But most of all, it doesn’t matter and people should stop caring. Springfield’s industrial sector is loving it.